The Halfway Point - Commentary on the World Today
   


About
When I was 46 I started writing essays on life, or the state of the human condition as I once called it. Because I was halfway between old enough to vote (21) and planned retirement (72) it was known as the "Halfway Point" series of essays.

Later when I mentioned the essays in one context or another on USENET, I got requests for copies and eventually for future essays. Thus the mailing list was born, and it moved to the Internet when that became widely available. At that time I moved to writing on a schedule, the 1st, 11th, and 21st of the month.

Now the trend is to "blogs," and read on demand. I am therefore making this available as a blog, and we shall see if people read it here, or by mail, or not at all.

Email me
here

Subscribe
Subscribe to a syndicated feed of my weblog, brought to you by the wonders of RSS.

Links
These are a few of my favourite links.

  • sanityfree a new 'toon
  • userfriendly
  • FOSS legal issues

  •        
    Wed, 05 Nov 2008

    A more stimulating stimulus package (06:42)

    There has been a lot of talk about a 2nd economic stimulus package, as part of the effort to get money moving. I have been looking at the probable results of the proposed plan, and it seems there is a far better way to help the economy while spending far fewer taxpayer dollars.

    What got me thinking is the effect of spending a dollar in various ways. If you put a dollar in the bank, it may be loaned to another customer to spend again, but in many cases "the buck stops here." A dollar spent on services, or foreign goods, will have a "fan out" ratio of about three. However, a dollar spent on American made manufactured goods has a fan-out of about eleven! So those dollars help a lot more people and businesses than other purchases, And I have a way to make that happen.

    The last stimulus was a "shotgun" approach, with the thought that if you give enough people enough money, some of them will spend it on something. That is poor targeting at the very least. Since the goal is to make things better for as many people as possible, for the fewest taxpayer dollars, let's make sure that people spend their free money on those American made goods. And rather than trying to keep people from spending on the wrong thing, we only pay them if they do pick the right thing.

    The essential difference between plans is to make the stimulus a rebate, rather than an unconditional gift. People will buy things with their own money, get a receipt which asserts that the goods are American made manufactured goods, and then the government will pay them back. The seller must certify that the product is made in America (minimum content and labor percentages), and the buyer submits the bill of sale with a simple form, and gets a tax credit. And the beauty of it is that it encourages vendors to clearly identify American made goods, and buyers to look for them, because the seller wants the sale, and the buyer is spending personal money, and will be careful to qualify for the rebate.

    The politicians who just want to give away the people's money will say this is too complex, too expensive, or doesn't benefit everybody because some people don't need any major manufactured goods, some retailers sell virtually all foreign made goods, and voters won't think you solved the problem unless you just hand them back some of their own money and call it a gift. Start with the "complex" issue, manufacturers have been doing rebates for years, and people figure them out very well. So how is telling people "we give you free money if you ask for it and spend it wisely" too complex for consumers? Or is it just too effective for politicians?

    To the criticism that not all people will have the need for these goods, of the funds to take advantage of the package, or that some retailers don't sell American made goods, I say "so what?" The object is to stimulate the economy and create consumer demand, not to be a social program which benefits people who will not put the money to the intended use. And as for vendors who make billions selling goods made overseas, many of which were made in America until the manufacturing was outsourced, I have no sympathy for them, nor the formerly American companies who provide their goods. Let the package benefit the American taxpayers and workers, it's their money.

    [This day's posts   ] permanent link

    Tue, 04 Nov 2008

    A better way to do a mortgage bailout (15:54)

    There has been a lot of talk about a government mortgage refinance package, as part of the effort to get money moving. The popular proposal seems to be to have the government buy a bunch of defaulted sub-prime mortgages and hope someday they will be worth what we pay for them. In the meantime, the taxpayers will bail out both the innocent people who found that their payments had gone up while their house value had gone down, and the less innocent, like speculators who bought the house to "flip" under the assumption that prices always go up, people who bought with the idea of renting out the property and letting the rent make the payments, and a small number of people who never could afford payments on a mortgage and never should have been given one. And in all cases the interests of banks which gave loans with virtually no qualification process will be rewarded for their bad behavior.

    There is a better way. A way which will cost the taxpayers vastly less, save the banks which acted with some measure of good sense, and still keep the majority of homeowners in their homes.

    The solution is for the government to take a second mortgage at very low interest, and have the bank take a first mortgage for the actual current value. A mortgage which they agree not to sell or divide. Thus the homeowner gets to keep the home, paying only a 1% or so interest on the 2nd mortgage, the original bank gets the face value of the 2nd mortgage, and the taxpayers are only on the hook for the difference between the current and original value, holding a mortgage which can be collected when the house is paid off or sold.

    And by limiting the size of the 2nd mortgage to some percentage, perhaps 20-30, of the first mortgage, there's some probability that the house value will rise to actually cover the value and will be paid off. If the mortgage in default is higher than the current value of the house plus the 30% 2nd mortgage, then the bank will have to choose between foreclosure and taking the difference as a loss. A punishment for helping people get in over their heads.

    [This day's posts   ] permanent link


       


    Procrastination is the art of putting off until the last possible moment.
    But no longer!